BBMK monitored the 2019 December revenue forecasts by Legislative Council Staff (LCS) and the Office of State Planning and Budgeting (OSPB). Both forecasts continue to predict increased growth at a decreasing rate. The decreasing rate of growth can be attributed to low unemployment rates and the resulting effects. However, recessionary risk factors were decreased for the 2020-21 fiscal year due to sustained consumer confidence and spending. The economic forecast interacts with the Colorado State Budget forecast in the following ways.
- According to the LCS forecast the 2019-20 fiscal year is expected to end with an excess reserve of $180.4 million, increasing the starting fund balance for the 2020-21 fiscal year. This forecast is an increase of $62.3 million from the September revenue forecast. OSPB also revised their General Fund forecast downward from their September forecast maintaining a forecast above LCS.
- TABOR refunds are still expected in the 2020-21, 2021-22, and 2022-23 fiscal years.
- Total cash fund revenue subject to TABOR is expected to grow by 2.2.% in the 2020-19 fiscal year and 1.6% in the 2020-21 fiscal year. This expected increase can largely be attributed to severance tax collections and increased cash funding in transportation.Links to both presentations and full forecasts can be found below.
- The Joint Budget Committee (JBC) asked questions regarding severance tax income and the impact of SB19-181, utilizing available income to invest in State projects with large return on investment such as deferred maintenance, and effects of federal tax policy change on the Colorado economy.
Colorado Legislative Council Staff Economic and Revenue Forecast
Colorado Legislative Council Staff Economic and Revenue Forecast Presentation to JBC
Office of State Planning and Budgeting Economic and Revenue Forecast
Office of State Planning and Budgeting Economic and Revenue Forecast Presentation to JBC